Against the Euro, Sterling is above the all time low set after the Brexit vote. The Bank of England admitted this week that the country was now in a recession. This week has very much been a week of 2 halves where we have seen a trading range of £20 in 2 days on wheat futures. Corn is still holding a premium over wheat. Soya has firmed this week after initially opening lower, driven by Chinese purchases. Sunflower prices have turned and firmed slightly due to the uncertainty over the situation in Ukraine. Organic cereal offers are beginning to come more freely which is finally giving the market a truer value. Proteins, both sunflower and soya crops are looking good and at the moment, supply seems more than adequate.

The £ continues to give little in either direction with the Bank of England’s pessimistic tone to long-term economic growth. Wheat has thrown up a surprise downturn this week. Prices had begun to push higher last week ahead of the USDA report. The Ukraine grain corridor is still the biggest unknown in the market with questions raised about just how much volume is likely to come to fruition. Soya has followed other markets and moved lower post report but perhaps for more strong fundamental reasons. Longer term we also have the highly anticipated large South American crops but as they are barely in the ground, it would be difficult to grasp onto that too much as a story! Organic cereal offers are beginning to be offered a little more freely which is finally giving the market a truer value. Proteins, both sunflower and soya crops are looking good and at the moment, supply seems more than adequate.

The £ reached 2 month highs on back of interest rate rise. Warning that this will be short-lived due to forecasted recession pressure. Wheat markets look relatively flat this week. UK harvest 50% cut for wheat. Bushels at 80+ as an average, but protein lower due to early harvest start. UK wheat now competitive to European markets. First grain vessel left Odessa this week. Soya has rallied due to excessive heat in North America. EU has dropped sunflower projections over uncertainty of what will come out of the Black Sea. Organic prices remain stable.

The £ has seen relatively little movement over the past 2-3 weeks. Wheat markets have ended the week up £15, after initially falling back after the export deal between Ukraine and Russia was signed last week. France have cut their yields further this week owing to the excessive heat. It is apparent that this harvest window will be tight and the opportunity to buy near the bottom is not going to be as clear as hoped leading into harvest. The soya market had shown some signs of weakness as the US weather looks favourable for this pod development stage. Organic prices are slowly falling. Early indications from India are that the crops are looking good.

The £ continues to struggle and has reached 2 year lows this week against the $ and € with ongoing concerns around the impact of inflation and a recession could have on the UK markets. Wheat continues to look volatile, although still in a clear downward trend as we enter the harvest period. Harvests in Northern Europe and the US, the over all world S&D figures still look extremely tight for the coming year. For the UK, prices have ended the week on a rally (triggered by these large sales to Egypt), however, we are still a good £10 too expensive for exports against any European material. Soya still has this old crop/new crop story although Brazil has seen a drop this week. Organic prices are slowly falling. China is becoming increasingly unreliable to India will go back to being our main source for next season.