Currencies
Currency has remained relatively flat this week with no new real strong data to push it in either direction. Economic data from our road out of lockdown will remain key.
Wheat
Grain prices have seen a particularly volatile week with Liffe up £11 week on week at one point. Fund money was the main driver across all markets with fears over the continued dry weather across Europe, US and Canada. China continued to buy French wheat to replace the now over priced corn in their diets, adding yet more upward price pressure on an already pressured old crop market.
The second half of the week gave some much needed correction, with Liffe Nov futures closing back down £6 in one day! Europe mainly led the change in sentiment with sellers desperate to cash out overbought long positions after the strong rally we had seen. There is now an improved rain forecast across the UK and Europe all of which helped Matiff close €8 lower in one day.
Looking at the UK crops, we are still in that ‘no man’s land’, lacking clear sentiment. As we have previously discussed, the UK acreage planted was good (and well up on the previous crop plantings) and would be sufficient to give us an exportable surplus, if the yield performs well. Currently, the UK wheat crop is looking rather mixed with earlier plantings looking strong but those later winter acreages, which were planted in wetter than ideal conditions, are very shallow rooted and therefore beginning to struggle with the sustained dry weather. We have had some rain (just in time for a bank holiday when we all must still sit outside to enjoy the pubs and restaurants), but if we are to get anywhere near the yield which is needed, then we need more rain over a decent period of time.
Soya
Soya prices continue to take their lead from the grain markets, whilst also gaining more support from continued Chinese buying. The weather in Argentina finally looks to be drying up, so their harvest can pick up pace, but the question now is how much damage has already been caused to those crops still standing in the fields.
The soya complex is currently being driven mainly by the veg oil markets and continues to be as Malaysia struggles with labour shortages due to Covid which is having a dramatic impact on their palm oil production figures.
Like the grain market, soya has retreated in the second half of the week on rumours of cancelations and questions over whether China are actually buying additional tonnage or if they are ‘washing out’ existing contracts?
And Finally…
Oldest known Elizabethan era map of London discovered in house clearance
A map was discovered in the home of a former London Mayor, and shows London in 1570 when the population was around 200,000 compared to todays 8.9 million!
The map shows that the most populated area was around the Tower of London, where the City of London is today, and also shows the original St Pauls’ Cathedral within the city walls before it was destroyed in the Great Fire of 1666.
Most of London’s now bustling West End including Soho and Leicester Square was still green, undeveloped farmer’s fields.
The map is titled 'Londinum Feracissimi Angliae Regni Metropolis' - the Latin words for London England Kingdom Metropolis, and it will be sold at auction next week with a guide price of £3,000.
One newspaper has constructed an effective interactive version of the map, where you can slide between the map, and arial pictures of today’s London. These can be found here.
Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey
