Currencies
The £ has suffered this week dropping back down to $1.19 on the back of $ strength.
The Fed are expected to introduce further rate hikes next week in a bid to boost the US economy whereas conversely, it is believed that the UK are somewhere near the top of any planned rate hikes.
Wheat
Wheat appears to have reached the end of its current rally (commenced 24th of January) and is beginning to drift back however, we are now nearing the end of the current 120 day grain Ukrainian grain corridor and there is real concern as the 1st anniversary of the invasion approaches, that Putin could look to suspend movements at the end of the current deal. It has already been reported that Russia are deliberately delaying inspections in Turkey with vessel lines up now somewhere around 108 long. The live map shows the vessel queuing (each of the dots, and arrows representing a vessel) , both in the Black sea, and at Istanbul.
Once we get the uncertainty of the next month out of the way however focus will return to weather and crop production.
Maize markets continue to look volatile with prices creeping up with continued dryness in Argentina, however rain is now forecast over the coming week. There is evidence of a drop in demand too which will curb prices with US exports for first week of February down 27%.
Soya
Similar to maize, short term soya prices have rallied over dryness however, we are still looking at a record South American crop, regardless of any downward revisions for Argentina.
Brazil’s harvest is currently at 17.4% vs 29.9% last year but we are early days yet.
Organic
Organic prices seem to have found a level now albeit, not really trading. Again, shippers and compounders have huge stocks because of the downturn we have already seen in volume which is making pricing almost a paper exercise. The caveat to prices moving lower is that material in the stores carries a cost and there will be a limit to how low shippers are prepared to go to move stock before it makes more sense to hold it.
And Finally…
Anyone can have their bike stolen!
The picture shows 3 people stealing a motorcycle, sadly not unusual there.
However, it is a policeman’s bike……and he was attending a 3 day course on about stolen vehicles! Irony!
One of the Warwickshire constable’s colleagues tweeted; “One of our Rural Crime Team officers had his personal motorbike stolen…..while he was attending a “Stolen Vehicle Examiner & Identification Course”, adding “The irony isn’t lost on us!!”
The bike was stolen from the hotel car park in Swindon, however, the officer had fitted a disc lock, steering lock, immobiliser and three separate tracking devices to the bike that immediately disabled the bike on it being moved, and it was recovered locally to the location.
The officer in question retrieved the vehicle, attended the last day of the course, which he passed.
Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey
