The UK market remains focused on new crop drilling concerns that next year there will be a smaller crop. This has led to some covering by consumers in a market that is still short of sellers.
As a result prices have firmed and finished the week at £152/T on the May 19 contract, which was slightly up on the week. The Nov 19 contract is all but complete trading at £144/T. Prices are up in the UK so we are not competitive for export on old crop contracts, and looking forward to next season we are uncompetitive for export, and nearly at price parity for import. We believe that there are many who are still on the fence as to what to do in the face of the rising prices, and are understandably waiting for firm information as to how old and New Crop will play out before they make a change to their buying policy.
The political focus remains on the Election and who will be calling the shots in the next round of Brexit or even just in British politics. The calm seen last week in currency seems to be slipping as volatility sneaks back in. This week creating support but with so many unknows it could easily swing in either direction.
The weather concerns also continue in the EU. Strategie Grains lowered its soft wheat area estimate in the EU after continued heavy rain, especially in the western countries.
The first 2020 production estimates based on long term trends for soft wheat are 142.3 Mln T compared to last year’s 145.5 Mln T. There appear to be contradictory stories from either side regarding the US and China trade discussions little, although little progress seems to have been being made, so US grain prices drifted lower as weather concerns in South America ease. This reversed the gains from earlier in the week assisted by a reduction in Ukraine expected crop and planting delays in both the EU and Black Sea.
The Black sea is experiencing its own weather concerns with temperatures expected to drop sharply without the protection of snow cover. Russia had some positive news to report for the 2019/20 season with export projections up 0.5 Mln T to 34.5 Mln T in line with the increase in production figures to 74 Mln T from 72.5 Mln T, leaving them a little to rebuild stocks into the deal.
As there has been little progress in the US-China trade disputes, the soya complex is turning its attention back to the fundamentals of Supply &Demand. Brazil and Argentina have low stocks yet to sell and China’s demand is increasing this side of the Chinese New Year. The US is looking like the only real option until Brazil’s next crop. Weather in South America remains positive for crop progress. The effects of the change in governments in Argentina adds support to the Soya bean price as the sentiment from farmers is that they expect a return to past policies.
`Upcycling’ is a popular pastime transforming; something old into something treasured again. But when you choose something iconic to transform it is important to keep enough of the original to be recognised while making something uniquely new. We think Brent Walter has done just that with his Volkspod.
The VW bug was an icon. From the time they were mass produced at the end of World War II until they went out of production in 2003 their design caught the imagination and inspired many designs. The wings of the VW Beetle gave it its iconic curves and earnt it its cute nickname the `bug’. Designer Brent Walter has transformed these car parts into a whole new type of transport. The Volkpod minibikes have oversized headlights, wide handlebars and a Schwinn seat. The bikes have a 79cc engine and the ones pictured are painted in the original VW beetle colours, pastel blue and birch green, giving a big nod back to the vintage origins. If you are a fan of the original Beetle, mini bikes or upcycling these might just be on your Christmas list.
Brought to you by Melanie Blake and Martin Humphrey
