Currency has remained remarkedly stable since the Brexit deadline was postponed again.  The country focused on TV debates and who could or should take us through to a Brexit conclusion, it is only a matter of time before whatever the results are provide the possibility of the return to volatility. 

The price of UK wheat remained firm this week, with small gains on the May 20 contract which closed at £151.25/T, £2.15 up on the week.  The volumes traded were low at 145 lots across all contracts traded.  The key new crop position of November 20 lifted only 50p, finishing at £157.25/T.  The difference has been slightly reduced to £6/T, so there is little incentive to carry wheat into the new crop but with so many other uncertain issues the low level of wheat selling does not demonstrate this. 

The UK trade continues to make comparisons with the 2013 harvest, with the belief that little progress has been made in the last week so that new crop planting is still only 50% complete.  Significant variation has been reported from farm to farm, dependent upon the weather, soil type and many other factors, and not least of all: a little luck.  The worst case estimates on yields suggest that the UK will need to import feed wheat next season. 

French wheat plantings have made little further progress, mirroring the UK.  6% up this week the crop at 80% complete is still a better number then seen in the UK.  Russia and Ukraine both received much needed rain but with snow cover lacking the crop is vulnerable without further snow cover.  The Russian Agriculture ministry downgraded the 2019 crop to 75 Mln T.  A drop of 3 Mln T.  In India the wheat crop is estimated to hit a record again in 2020 above the 102 Mln T in 2019 due to the benefits of the monsoon season allowing expanded areas and yields.  This seemed to be against the fairly significant gains seen in the Chicago wheat market.  Perhaps the rumoured lack of deliverable stock to cover the shorts combined with better than what has become normal export figures have created some technical purchases by the trade.

The trade remains focused on negotiations for THE trade deal between China and the US when looking at the options for soya beans.  In positive news, the US announced on Friday that it would remove harsh import tariffs against many Chinese imports.  The trade, however saw this more as a move to benefit Trump in the 2020 elections as the move could provide relief to any US companies paying the tariffs and ease concern in those most effected by the retaliation tariffs – not least farmers.  Brazil and Argentina reported beneficial rain for both soya beans and maize plantings.  US soya beans futures prices were restricted by this.  With the trade deal not yet in place, the increased potential that South America can provide China’s soya bean needs again next season is strong competition for US export potential.  Prices are dropping on the US soya contract whilst volumes have been strong.

This near to Christmas many of us wish we had a `money fairy’.  Well one village seems to have just that.  In Blackhall Colliery, County Durham a good Samaritan or money fairy is leaving bundles of £2000 in plain sight in the street. 

So far the bundles of £20 notes have been found 12 times in the last 5 years, four of them this year alone, left where they will be found throughout the village.  So far, the honest finders have been handing the bundles into the police but detectives have found no finger prints to identify the owner or reason behind them being left.  With nobody coming forward to claim the bundles of cash the finders have become the lucky ones to have the cash returned to them.  So a visit to this former pit village might just be worth it this side of Christmas. Read more…

Brought to you by Melanie Blake and Martin Humphrey